As of April 11, 2024, the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Alert System remains at El Niño Advisory/La Niña Watch. During March 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. SST anomalies were coolest in the far eastern Pacific, with the latest weekly Niño-1+2 value at -0.1°C. Weekly SST index values in the other Niño regions were between +0.9°C and +1.2°C. Below-average subsurface temperatures strengthened, reflecting the expansion of negative subsurface anomalies associated with an upwelling Kelvin wave. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the west-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly near average. Equatorial convection was slightly suppressed around the International Date Line and was near average around Indonesia. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continued weakening of El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during late summer. The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate than statistical models during this time of year. La Niña tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña.


In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).

The latest Columbia Climate School International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society ENSO predictions plume, pictured just above and published on April 19, 2024, shows forecasts made by a set of dynamical and statistical models for SST in the Niño-3.4 region, for nine, overlapping, three-month periods. As of mid-April 2024, El Niño conditions still persist in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, with important oceanic and atmospheric indicators aligning with an ongoing El Niño event that is gradually diminishing. Most models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024, which then persists during the boreal summer seasons of May-July and June-August 2024. La Niña then becomes the most probable category in August-October 2024 through December 2024-February 2025. At this time, no category is dominant during July-September 2024.

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